Worst-Case Scenario

Picture this…

You wake up in the morning and discover that the power is off. The house is cold and dark. You pick up the telephone and it is dead and your cellphone is inoperative. You get dressed and go outside and find your neighbors are already out, but they know no more than you. You get in your car and turn the radio on – nothing but static. You drive around to see how widespread the outage is, only to find the main roads are parking lots. No traffic lights are working and some cars are abandoned and blocking all lanes. Somehow you make it back home.

“What now?” you ask yourself.

This is a scenario I am working on for a new novel. We have all gone through the motions of thinking about “being prepared”, and some of us may have already done a few things in the event of something like this happening one day—a few gallons of water, some extra canned goods and an emergency “grab bag” and feel “as ready as I’ll ever be”.

But ready for what? In a week and the power has still not come back on and no one can tell you what has happened.

I put myself in this scenario as if it had happened today.

I have $27.00 in my wallet. There is money in the bank, which is closed, and my debit card is useless with no power. No stores are open, no gasoline is being pumped and neither of my vehicles have more than a half-tank of fuel.

My freezer is full but everything in it will be thawed in a day or two. My home is total electric so I have no hot water or use of the stove. I have a full 20# propane tank for my grill, but that’s it.

At this point are you more concerned about what happened, or are you, like me, in full survival mode?

Interesting storyline, Brew.

Thanks, Don. I was thinking that this would be a perfect subject for that project we were discussing!

I really would like for any of you to imagine yourself in this
predicament and tell us what your first reactions would be.

In a week many people will be desparate. The danger will be intense.
Even with several weapons and a good stock of ammo, I have to think
about my family's safety. After thinking about this for several months,
I believe that heading for the country and getting away from crowds
would be the best thing to do. The next most important thing would be
to form a like-minded community of people who can share resources and
skills.

What would you do?

BTW, in my scenario what has happened is either a high altitude nuclear
explosion, creating an EMP (Electromagnetic pulse), or a direct hit
from an X level solar flare. Either one will destroy electronic
circuitry.

I agree, and I've been giving it some thought. I'll get back to you in a day or so with them.

Go to Absolute Write and ask them to show me the way

I want a green thingy for this profound thought!

There's a very old English Sci-fi movie like this, and it isn't pretty. It's very much the executives in the boat scenario for management training. Desperation sets in immediately and brings out the ugliest in each. In the end, they are all dead, not realizing their experience was an isolated experiment - and they failed.

I have known terrible fear, alone on a large yacht in a tropical depression. I repeated the Lord's prayer as a mantra as I was unable to move anywhere,
lashed to the mast on the sole in the main salon below.

This scenario is too fearsome to imagine, and I would turn to prayer as my plan of last resort.

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This scenario is too fearsome to imagine, and I would turn to prayer as my plan of last resort.

I know, DK. Have you read Stephen King's The Stand? That was a
biological cause there, but the "mob rule" would probably be about the
same. It was after 9/11 and just before beginning to write Keechie in
2005 when I first began thinking along these lines. Actually, thinking
about it, Y2K planted the first seed.

It reminds me of the storyline for the TV series Ghericho. (Forgive the spelling.) The people of a small town were cut off after a series of nuclear attacks on US soil, and had to learn to pull together.

I don't think any of us--save a few survivalists--would be ready for such. Even a hurricane survival kit wouldn't do it, as it is only designed for a few days.

Alice wrote:

Go to Absolute Write and ask them to show me the way

I want a green thingy for this profound thought!

I think we have a non-posting lurker on the board -- but not for long.

I have written such a scenario.

Also having worked with the Red Cross, I know a little bit about dealing with disasters. February 2008, I went to Arkansas where a tornado had cut a 124 mile swath through the countryside. A boat factory was destroyed with 16 people inside. I listened to stories over and over. Survival was amazing, help from others was amazing, resilience was amazing. As a Red Cross person I am conscious of a few emergency procedures. Last summer our electricity was out for 48 hours due to a storm. We had water, lanterns that didn't work too well, but we were ready to bail out and go to a hotel when the electricity went on. Talking at these times is essential.

I don't believe there would be mob rule. I believe there would be cooperation.

Carol

Carol Troestler wrote:

I have written such a scenario.

Also having worked with the Red Cross, I know a little bit about dealing with disasters. February 2008, I went to Arkansas where a tornado had cut a 124 mile swath through the countryside. A boat factory was destroyed with 16 people inside. I listened to stories over and over. Survival was amazing, help from others was amazing, resilience was amazing. As a Red Cross person I am conscious of a few emergency procedures. Last summer our electricity was out for 48 hours due to a storm. We had water, lanterns that didn't work too well, but we were ready to bail out and go to a hotel when the electricity went on. Talking at these times is essential.

I don't believe there would be mob rule. I believe there would be cooperation.

Carol

I agree. Here when our lights go out we try to help our neighbors,

Carol and Alice, you're probably right if it was a short-term disaster.
But when it goes on for weeks and weeks and people are hungry and
trying to survive - and they want the food you have, which is barely
enough to feed your own family. I will share what I can, but I would
kill to keep it from being taken from me. Remember the looters after Katrina?

Okay... all your food is gone, the water supply is either gone or
contaminated and your generous neighbors are in the same boat. The
stores have already been looted and the police have been ordered to
"shoot to kill".

Now what?

Brew,

I think Katrina is probably a good analogy for this scenario, but a scene after war would also be a scenario. This scenario has occurred at times in our history, at times during the Civil War.

There are bunkers in Virginia for government officials to go to in a national emergency such as you speak of. This could be why there is no information, no government intervention.

Dean Rusk said regarding these well fitted bunkers for congress and the President and vice president:

"I am convinced that government leaders . . . are simply not going to say good-bye to colleagues and families and board a helicopter and whirl away to some cave. Even if we did, and if the President and Secretary of War survived . . .the first band of shivering survivors would hang them from the nearest tree."

Perhaps this could add to your story.

Carol

I think the looters after Katrina were dispicable. I would rather starve than steal someone else's food.

I woud gladly share my last scrap with even whoever smote me from Absolute Write.

Noone needs to kill me for my food I will give it to them.

My God is a good God-- He has everything I need and will give it to me when I need it--not before.

The congregation will now sing just When I Need Him, Jesus is Near.

I love survival stories. You might want to read "The Long Walk," a true story about men from a prison in Siberia who escaped and walked to India. This is the best story about survival I have ever read, not only survival but the desire for freedom, for making it against all odds.

Carol

I got this from a friend and written by a survivor of the flight that went into the Hudson River. This is the end of his writing of this event:

For now I have 4 lessons I would like to share:
  1. Cherish your families as never before and go to great lengths to keep your promises.
  2. Be thankful and grateful for everything you have and don't worry about the things you don't have.
  3. Keep in shape. You never know when you'll be called upon to save your own life, or help someone else save theirs.
4. When you fly, wear practical clothing. You never know when you'll end up in an emergency or on an icy wing in flip flops and pajamas and of absolutely no use to yourself or anyone else.
And I'd like to add: Fly with gray-haired pilots!

(I love the "gray-haired pilot" part. My husband was a "gray-haired pilot.")

Carol
 

Me again. Pretty soon there will be red bars on the side of all my posts forever, but Brew I really like these things.

There is a IMax movie called "Hurricane on the Bayou" about Katrina. A little girl, who played the fiddle quite remarkably, was the narrator for a documentary about the wetlands with the intention of helping to save the ones by New Orleans. In the middle of putting this documentary together, Katrina struck and everything changed. In the end she and a friend take a boat out to the bayou where they had previously seen a mother alligator with many babies. On their return, they only see the mother, until one little baby crawls on the alligator's back.

Also I read a sci fi book about Australia. I never read sci fi, but we were taking a train across the outback and decided to read books about Australia along the way. In the book, Australia had been devastated by a plague from rabbits and all inhabitants either died or left, sort of like your scenario. A few years later, companies in the US were sending execs to Australia, dropping them off in the outback and telling them if they made it to the coast they would receive a million dollars. But it was really a way to get rid of executives the companies didn't like. (Maybe like the AIG guys.) And yes, once again Australia is populated by misfits as originally, but the story is indeed one of survival.

I think people would survive Brew.

That's it. My mind really gets going with things like this.

Carol

With all due respect, Brew is not talking about a disaster that will last a few weeks and then everything will go back to normal. What happens in stories of this type is total and complete devastation, if not of natural resources, then certainly of human ones. Large cities will have hundreds of thousands of people who cannot find food. Groceries and supermarkets will have been looted, as have the hospitals and drug stores. There is no electric power, other than the few who have generators, and they will only be able to run them until their supply of fuel runs out. The gas stations have been drained dry, and no utilities at all work. There is no running water, no gas for heating or cooking, and thousands of the sick and the eldery have already died. The cities will begin to empty as people search for food, and they will over run nearby towns and farms, taking what they want, or what they can. Families will band together and try to hold all strangers at bay. What neighbors there are will turn on you once they reach the stage where hunger takes over. You will only be able to hold on to your food and everyting else you have if you are strong and if you have the firepower. Streams may or may not have been contaminated, so you don't know what water is safe to drink. Armed gangs roam the countryside, taking what they want from those who are weaker. This is not survival as anyone has ever known survival before. It is reverting back to near cave man status, when only the strong will live.

So then, what is an ordinary man to do? A man such as Brew is describing here. Where does he go to find food to feed himself and his family? Does he just give up and watch everyone he knows die? Does he commit suicide, after first killing his family? What does he do? It is not a question of waiting it out or holding on till things get better, because they aren't going to. Our leaders are underground, hoarding their food and water. They have a loyal group of military personnel, but once they begin to get hungry they begin to turn on the leaders. The leaders are soon killed, leaving no government structure in place. Some of the military units band together and move out into the country side, also taking what they want.

You are that ordinary man, hiding with your wife, your child and one friend. Knowing that at any minute disaster can come calling. What do you do?

What

I would pray-at a point like this--only
God can help you.

Thanks, Carol. I believe people will survive too. But after a lot
of serious thought I came to the conclusion that one person/family
alone would not have too great a chance; but if like-minded people
organize and form something like a commune, they would succeed. A
farmer with enough acreage to support a "tent city" and everyone
share in the planting/harvesting could not only benefit himself but
everyone else too. Desperados would be less inclined to try to steal
from larger groups - and the country fokes I know have guns!

Clean potable water will be the biggest hurdle at this point.

EDIT: Don, you got it spot on. We simul-posted so I will be back in a minute with my reply.

I was going to post this earlier, but since Don gave a more vivid
description of the scenario, I think it is time. To illustrate how
close he and I are in thinking alike, compare the following with what
he said. This is from Keechie, and is the reason the family wound up in the cave - away from everyone.

*******

The spread of the mystery disease intensified. The Centers for Disease
Control in Atlanta was now as secure and closely guarded as the White
House. A State of National Emergency was declared and Martial Law
enacted. Homeland Security, made up of people only minimally trained in
airport security went into action. They, guided mostly by panic, acted
without adequate instruction or direction. Fortunately, a vast majority
of these ill-trained “professionals” deserted the ranks in fear for
their own lives.

Then, as the public panic reached its maximum, the power grids were
sabotaged across the land. Communication systems failed. Radio and
television, so secure with their “Emergency Broadcasting System” went
off the air. Cities and rural areas alike were in the dark. Water
purification plants shut down. No stores were open. No airlines were
flying. No trucks were making deliveries. The remaining fuel could not
be pumped from the storage tanks.

There was no public transportation, and the sick and dying went uncared
for. Hospitals remained open until the fuel for their emergency
generators ran out; then the medical staff, fearing for their own lives
and those of their families, failed to report for duty. The patients
who were able to leave did so. Many of them, too sick to leave, died in
the dark, deserted by those entrusted with their care.

Mass panic ensued, and mobs ran through the streets, stealing anything
they could find. Money was useless, while food, guns, ammunition, drugs
and antibiotics became the new currency.

The military began closing down all major routes into and out of the
cities. They quarantined entire neighborhoods where the sickness seemed
worst. Local governments enacted strict curfews, but due to the lack of
personnel, they were not adequately enforced.

Brew,

Sorry, but it does not scare me. I have been through much
worse.
A man had me in his grasp he screwed a metal halo on my head and drilled through my thick skull with his electric drill. I thought I was dead many times over.

I was upset-- blood pressure torking at about 185/110.

God saved me then--If HE WANTS ME TO LIVE I WILL LIVE.

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Sorry, but it does not scare me. I have been through much worse.

I'm not trying to scare you, Alice. I'm trying to write a #@&^!$ book!

This sounds quite like 'The Stand', and I have something similar on the back burner at the moment. Where I am here in the woods, I would head either for the swamp or try to find a cave in the nearby mountains. We have enough canned goods to last a long time, and a wood stove with lots of dry wood that will take over as a cooking range if we run out of fuel. There are many survivalist types in the area, and I think marauders would find it quite difficult to penetrate the community.

In the past, when the community was isolated from the outside world for 2 weeks, neighbors all pulled together, and I think it would happen the same way in a natural disaster or a due to a catastrophic event.

Many of us know what wild plants are good to eat and have high nutrition. Mushrooms can be plentiful, and there is always wild game. That is assuming of course that flora and fauna are not impacted by what ever the disaster is.