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 Why Brexit

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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
Registration date : 2008-01-11
Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptySun Feb 17, 2019 3:17 pm

The UK is leaving the EU on March 29th. I thought I would look back at why the government allowed the UK electorate to vote on whether to leave or remain. In this video below, Donald Tusk says that David Cameron expected the coalition with the Liberal Democrats would ensure that he would not need to follow through the Tory party manifesto pledge because the LibDems wouldn't allow it. In the event, the Tories won a clear majority in the 2015 general election, and there was no coalition to veto the referendum. Of course, the referendum was included in the manifesto for the precise purpose of avoiding a coalition government by winning back Tory voters from the LibDems with the promise of a vote on remaining or leaving the EU.
 

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Amazon Author Central: Shelagh Watkins
I shall never be old. It doesn't suit me -- ©️Shelagh Watkins
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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
Registration date : 2008-01-11
Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyMon Feb 18, 2019 12:03 pm

So, what happened in 2016 after the general election? David Cameron was not overly concerned about his promise to give the electorate a referendum. At that stage, he felt that the threat of a referendum might bolster his case in seeking concessions from the EU, which subsequently he successfully negotiated in February, 2016. Following his success, he set the date for the referendum and began his campaign in support of remaining in the EU. Cameron calculated that a close fought contest with a remain win would strength the UK's position in future negotiations and put an end to UKip's demands for leaving the EU. He miscalculated; leave won and the UK will be leaving on March 29th. Asked if he regretted the decision to hold a referendum, David Cameron said that he only regretted that the campaign to remain had not been good enough.


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I shall never be old. It doesn't suit me -- ©️Shelagh Watkins
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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
Registration date : 2008-01-11
Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyTue Feb 19, 2019 11:24 am

David Cameron resigned and Theresa May took charge of the government and negotiations with the EU. The original plan was to use archaic Henry VIII laws to end the treaty with the EU by royal protocol. In stepped Gina Miller, who took the government to the High Court, which gave a ruling that parliament had to trigger A50 to start the withdrawal process. Theresa May took the High Court ruling to the Supreme Court and lost. Parliament went on to vote to trigger A50 and the Withdrawal Bill became an Act of Parliament. Two years on, the Withdrawal Act is the only assurance that the UK will eventually leave the EU. A strong campaign by the losing remain voters might have overturned the result of the referendum. As it is, only another Act of Parliament can stop Brexit.    


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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
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Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyWed Feb 20, 2019 9:45 am

What did Theresa May do next? She held a general election, having said that she wouldn't, and lost the Tory majority gained by David Cameron by offering the referendum in the first place! The government found itself in a weakened position, despite winning extra Tory seats in Scotland.

Negotiations with the EU began. The EU said no trade deal talks until the Irish border problem had been sorted. The border remains unsorted, and so no trade talks have taken place. The EU's solution to avoid a "hard border" on land, where one already exists -- there are different currencies and VAT on either side of the Irish border-- is to create a "hard border" between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, where one previously did not exist.

Members of the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) that support the Tory minority government are very unhappy with the EU's solution, which is written into the backstop and could become permanent, forcing Northern Ireland to follow different EU regulations to the rest of the UK. This might prove to be unlawful, and one of the chief negotiators of the Good Friday Agreement, David Trimble, is currently seeking crowd funding to pay for a legal case that challenges the backstop.

In 2017, DUP leader Arlene Foster explained why the EU solution was unacceptable:


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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
Registration date : 2008-01-11
Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyThu Feb 21, 2019 11:59 am

Members of the DUP became increasingly under pressure from Theresa May, who was anxious to move the negotiations on to discuss a trade deal with the EU. In December, 2017, she persuaded the DUP to accept a backstop solution. When they saw the text, they were unhappy and insisted upon the addition of a clause to the Joint Report that ensured Northern Ireland would be treated no differently to the rest of the UK. This is the original text in the Joint Report:  

"49.  The  United  Kingdom  remains committed  to  protecting  North-South cooperation and  to its  guarantee  of  avoiding  a  hard  border.  Any  future  arrangements  must  be  compatible with  these  overarching  requirements.  The  United  Kingdom's  intention  is  to  achieve these  objectives  through  the  overall  EU-UK  relationship.  Should  this  not  be  possible, the  United  Kingdom  will  propose  specific  solutions  to  address  the  unique circumstances  of  the  island  of  Ireland.  In  the  absence  of  agreed  solutions,  the  United Kingdom  will  maintain  full  alignment  with  those  rules  of  the  Internal  Market  and  the Customs  Union  which,  now  or  in  the  future,  support  North-South  cooperation,  the  allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

This is the additional text added by the DUP:

"50.  In  the  absence  of  agreed  solutions,  as  set  out  in  the  previous  paragraph,  the  United Kingdom  will  ensure  that  no  new  regulatory  barriers  develop  between  Northern Ireland  and  the  rest  of  the  United  Kingdom,  unless,  consistent  with  the  1998 Agreement,  the  Northern  Ireland  Executive  and  Assembly  agree  that  distinct arrangements  are  appropriate  for  Northern  Ireland.  In  all  circumstances,  the  United Kingdom  will  continue  to  ensure  the  same  unfettered  access  for  Northern  Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market."

These two paragraphs remain in the Joint Report, December, 2017. At 4 a.m. on December 8th, 2017, Theresa May dashed to Brussels to present the Joint Report. In March 2018, the EU presented its own legally binding version, which removed the arrangement whereby the whole of the UK would be aligned with EU rules and regulations, and instead annexed Northern Ireland by drawing a hard border down the Irish Sea. The DUP objected immediately, and Theresa May said that no prime minister would allow this to happen. Thus the impasse was created, which has never been resolved.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier's statement about the backstop applying only to Northern Ireland and not to the whole of the UK:


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Why Brexit 81KU-cLOw3L._SX110_ Why Brexit 41C9GeFDNWL._SX110_ Why Brexit 41%2BmGkZJdOL._SX110_ Why Brexit 51eDGllZXhL._SX115_ Why Brexit 41y7VHKoszL._SX115_ Why Brexit 51Zs4N4T4eL._SX115_
Amazon Author Central: Shelagh Watkins
I shall never be old. It doesn't suit me -- ©️Shelagh Watkins
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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
Registration date : 2008-01-11
Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyFri Feb 22, 2019 12:30 pm

The EU refused to budge on the backstop and said that it was up to the UK to come up with an alternative arrangement, and so Chequers was born. Theresa May consulted her advisers and came up with what is now know as the Chequers proposal or BRINO (Brexit in name only). She gave the cabinet copies of her proposal at the Chequers country residence. The government white paper outlining the Chequers proposal was universally rejected by both leave and remain voters. To the leave camp, the proposed deal left the UK tied to the EU, with all its rules and regulations. To the remain camp, the Chequers deal would be a worse version of what the UK has already.  

Why Chequers isn't Brexit:


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Why Brexit 81KU-cLOw3L._SX110_ Why Brexit 41C9GeFDNWL._SX110_ Why Brexit 41%2BmGkZJdOL._SX110_ Why Brexit 51eDGllZXhL._SX115_ Why Brexit 41y7VHKoszL._SX115_ Why Brexit 51Zs4N4T4eL._SX115_
Amazon Author Central: Shelagh Watkins
I shall never be old. It doesn't suit me -- ©️Shelagh Watkins
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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
Registration date : 2008-01-11
Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptySat Feb 23, 2019 8:15 am

Two cabinet ministers resigned after the Chequers meeting. Dominic Rabb replaced the Brexit minister David Davis. Meetings between Rabb and Barnier did not go well, which should have been a warning of what was to come. At the EU summit in September, 2018, the EU rejected Theresa May's Chequers proposal.

Donald Tusk said there were positive things in the Chequers proposal, but it wouldn't work. He was more concerned with the backstop than the deal. Theresa May repeated the need for a backstop that did not divide the UK, and said that leaving without a deal would be an option if there was no agreement on the backstop.


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Why Brexit 81KU-cLOw3L._SX110_ Why Brexit 41C9GeFDNWL._SX110_ Why Brexit 41%2BmGkZJdOL._SX110_ Why Brexit 51eDGllZXhL._SX115_ Why Brexit 41y7VHKoszL._SX115_ Why Brexit 51Zs4N4T4eL._SX115_
Amazon Author Central: Shelagh Watkins
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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
Registration date : 2008-01-11
Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptySun Feb 24, 2019 6:26 am

Chequers seemed to be dead: rejected by everyone, including the EU. Yet, Barnier said that the Withdrawal Agreement was 95% complete. So what was the deal? No one knew; no one knows. Chequers was left to die with no replacement. Theresa May confirmed that the only sticking point was over the Irish border, but still no mention of a trade deal:


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Why Brexit 81KU-cLOw3L._SX110_ Why Brexit 41C9GeFDNWL._SX110_ Why Brexit 41%2BmGkZJdOL._SX110_ Why Brexit 51eDGllZXhL._SX115_ Why Brexit 41y7VHKoszL._SX115_ Why Brexit 51Zs4N4T4eL._SX115_
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Abe F. March
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Age : 80
Location : Germany

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyMon Feb 25, 2019 12:47 am

Lots of good information in your posts, Shelagh, however I am still confused.  The latest info on the news is that PM May is delaying the parliament vote allowing the clock to tick to the deadline. As an outsider, having an opinion pro or con is not relevant.  Those affected by the exit from the EU are the ones most concerned.  Trade issues appear to be at the forefront together with the border stalemate with N. Ireland.  The news about Brexit has been overshadowed by Trump’s tariffs, nuclear issues with N. Korea and with Putin’s Russia.  Withdrawing from the INF is a greater concern.  Instead of eliminating nuclear weapons, there is now a surge in producing even more deadly weapons designed to go undetected using space and sea mode of delivery.  Europe is once again the focus for targeting.    Fighting against the proliferation of nuclear weapons while at the same time staying focused on the effects of Climate change is cause for concern that overrides business, secular or border issues. Our survival is at stake.  At my age, I doubt that I will personally be affected, however my concern is for my children and grandchildren.  The big picture requires prioritizing the issues that affect humanity as a whole.  Hindsight will not save us.
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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
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Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyMon Feb 25, 2019 9:57 am

I posted these videos to show the various key issues since the referendum, Abe. Journalists have spun the facts to suit their own narrative. The vidoes document what was actually said by both sides, without any spin added.

After the EU rejected Chequers, negotiations continued until, out of the blue, an anouncement was made that a draft Withdrawal Agreement had finally been tabled. Theresa May held a cabinet meeting, and two more ministers resigned. Both were replaced, including the Brexit minister Dominic Raab. Things were going badly, so Mrs. May decided to take over the role of negotiating with the EU, and she remains chief negotiator.  After a second cabinet meeting, she succeeded in bullying ministers to accept the draft Withdrawal Agreement without any changes, despite deep reservations among her cabinet.

At the end of November last year, she met with members of the EU in Brussels and shook hands on the draft agreement, which the EU now refuses to reopen. The December meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement was postponed until January. Meanwhile, the Prime Miniter had to survive two votes of no confidence: one in her leadership and the other in the government.


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Why Brexit 81KU-cLOw3L._SX110_ Why Brexit 41C9GeFDNWL._SX110_ Why Brexit 41%2BmGkZJdOL._SX110_ Why Brexit 51eDGllZXhL._SX115_ Why Brexit 41y7VHKoszL._SX115_ Why Brexit 51Zs4N4T4eL._SX115_
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I shall never be old. It doesn't suit me -- ©️Shelagh Watkins
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Abe F. March
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Abe F. March

Number of posts : 10720
Registration date : 2008-01-26
Age : 80
Location : Germany

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyMon Feb 25, 2019 11:41 pm

There are concerns that are not mentioned in the news.  An example:  A very important medication that my wife takes on a daily basis is produced in the UK.  She is concerned that the needed medication may not be available after Brexit.  She has asked her doctors and the pharmacist about this and they don’t have an answer.  One key medication that she takes is not in stock with any of the pharmaceutical distributors since it is a rare medication.  Each time she gets a prescription, it must be ordered directly from the producer.  We watch the news to learn how trade will be affected.  The pharmacist said that if the medication is not available from the producer, there is the possibility that German companies may be allowed to produce the medication thus circumventing the UK supplier.  I mention this only to point out the ramifications yet to be addressed resulting from the exit from the EU.
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Shelagh
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Shelagh

Number of posts : 12624
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Location : UK

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyTue Feb 26, 2019 9:27 am

Much has been said about trade between the EU27 and the UK in the event of no deal. The UK exports more goods to the rest of the world than it does to the EU (the reverse is true of imports) on WTO rules. After Brexit, anything exported from the UK will be available to the EU27 on the same tariffs as the rest of the world.

I try to avoid buying anything with an EU label. This does not prevent me from buying fresh produce from non-EU countries. I buy raspberries from Morocco and blueberries from South Africa or South America. These soft fruits have a very short shelf life and have to be transported as quickly as possible. There should be no problem at all in importing food swiftly from any country in or out of the EU.

The UK will continue to import from the EU, but will increasingly look for suppliers outside Europe. The UK imports far more food from Europe than it exports. This might change over time if the EU refuses to change the backstop and agree to a deal that is acceptable to parliament. The UK will find alternative sources of food, but the EU27 will find it difficult to replace the UK market.

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Why Brexit 81KU-cLOw3L._SX110_ Why Brexit 41C9GeFDNWL._SX110_ Why Brexit 41%2BmGkZJdOL._SX110_ Why Brexit 51eDGllZXhL._SX115_ Why Brexit 41y7VHKoszL._SX115_ Why Brexit 51Zs4N4T4eL._SX115_
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alice
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alice

Number of posts : 15672
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Age : 72
Location : Redmond, WA

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyTue Jun 04, 2019 12:24 pm

I wish the clock could be turned back  It seems life used to be  better years ago.  I wish  our kids could live in the olden days
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alice
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alice

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Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyTue Jun 04, 2019 12:26 pm

Boo hoo!
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Shelagh
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Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyWed Jun 05, 2019 6:11 am

Hi Alice, good to see you.  Very Happy Yes, the old ways took up more of our time but people were happier, by and large. We could reduce the carbon footprint enormously if people still grew their own food or bought local produce. We have a much greater variety of foodstuffs, but at a cost to the environment.

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Why Brexit 81KU-cLOw3L._SX110_ Why Brexit 41C9GeFDNWL._SX110_ Why Brexit 41%2BmGkZJdOL._SX110_ Why Brexit 51eDGllZXhL._SX115_ Why Brexit 41y7VHKoszL._SX115_ Why Brexit 51Zs4N4T4eL._SX115_
Amazon Author Central: Shelagh Watkins
I shall never be old. It doesn't suit me -- ©️Shelagh Watkins
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Abe F. March
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Abe F. March

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Registration date : 2008-01-26
Age : 80
Location : Germany

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyWed Jun 05, 2019 12:57 pm

Hi Alice,  you have been missed. 
Are you hiding from Trump?
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alice
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alice

Number of posts : 15672
Registration date : 2008-10-22
Age : 72
Location : Redmond, WA

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyTue Jul 23, 2019 7:06 pm

Trump is the problem.
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Abe F. March
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Abe F. March

Number of posts : 10720
Registration date : 2008-01-26
Age : 80
Location : Germany

Why Brexit Empty
PostSubject: Re: Why Brexit   Why Brexit EmptyTue Jul 23, 2019 9:57 pm

Trump is a problem worldwide.
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