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dkchristi
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Tue May 13, 2014 5:26 pm

Great article above.

"Increased application of N fertilisers in Australia has
led to acidification, contamination of ground and surface
water and enhanced greenhouse gas emission."

From above article - same applies to Florida.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Tue May 13, 2014 5:51 pm

Not necessarily so. In Brazil (the largest producer of sugar), the cooling effects and greenhouse gases cancel each other out:

Sugar Cane and Climate Change – Impacts of Sugar Cane Plantations in Brazil

Benefits of increasing sugar-cane area through the expansion into existing agriculture are described in Loarie et al. 2001. After quantifying the direct climate effects of sugar cane expansion in Brazil, they conclude that “in settings where demands on food security do not preclude biomass agriculture, conversion of crop and pasture land to sugar cane leads to substantial cooling effects by altering surface albedo and evapotranspiration and reinforces the indirect climate benefits of this land-use option”. On the other hand, sugar-cane production is nitrogen-intensive and emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide are increased especially in environments with high temperatures and soil water content (Thorbun et al. 2010; Martinelli et al. 2008).

Sugar Cane and Climate Change: Impacts of Sugar Cane Plantation in Brazil

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Abe F. March
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 1:18 am

You may find this most interesting and perhaps change your views.
http://philipharris.blogspot.de/2014/05/why-global-warming-failed.html?spref=tw
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 1:55 am

Having listened to the video and the predictions, I am more confused than before.
We know that the term “Global Warming” is not appropriate and that the term, “Climate Change” is a better description.
 
If what I gleaned from this report is accurate, we can expect colder temperatures that will affect crops.  Food will be scarce and Vegetarians will be forced to eat meat.  But wait, animals require food, and when they can’t get food, what will they eat to survive?
Working on food supplements will be cranked up and perhaps there will be tablets to replace food.  On the other hand, where will the ingredients for these food alternatives come from?
 
To stay warm, fossil fuels will be more necessary and perhaps we will be cranking up the coal furnaces and burning more wood   Alternative energy sources will suddenly become a top priority.   
 
Sometimes it is good to be ignorant.  Too much information can be confusing and scary, especially when there are no clear answers to questions and one chooses to rely on predictions.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 3:34 am

This is not a Scientific prediction. It's just an observation.

I mention in an earlier post on this thread that we witnessed the worst rainfall in 56 years during our visit to New Zealand. Using that as a guide to cycles of extreme weather, I looked for and found this chart of global temperatures collected by different organisations all plotted against one another. The warming is clear and is predicted to continue. If we take the 56-year-cycle as a guide to changing weather patterns (as opposed to changing climate), the halfway point would be 28 years. Data collection from satellites began in 1979. If we take that year as the starting point, 2007 would be the turning point.

In the graph below, I flipped the plotted data from 2007 to a predicted 2035. The predicted graph indicates that temperatures will continue to rise until 2020 and then cool back to the average temperatures of the early 1980s, which were considerably cooler than the present global temperatures.


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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 6:18 am

I'll stick with the international scientists who recently completed and submitted their report on climate change.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 8:10 am

What did they say?

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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 9:36 am

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. In the same year, the UN General Assembly endorsed the action by WMO and UNEP in jointly establishing the IPCC.
 
The IPCC is a scientific body under the auspices of the United Nations (UN). It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.
 
Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. IPCC aims to reflect a range of views and expertise. The Secretariat coordinates all the IPCC work and liaises with Governments. It is supported by WMO and UNEP and hosted at WMO headquarters in Geneva.
 
The IPCC is an intergovernmental body. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations (UN) and WMO. Currently 195 countries are members of the IPCC. Governments participate in the review process and the plenary Sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC Bureau Members, including the Chair, are also elected during the plenary Sessions.
 
Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.
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dkchristi
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 9:37 am

http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 12:16 pm

Yes, but what did they say in their recent report?

Did they say that the Arctic ice is 50% thicker than it was in 2012?

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/latest-data-shows-arctic-ice-volume-has-increased.html

Or that the glaciers in the Antarctic are on the decline and the melting is unstoppable, as will be proved in two hundred or perhaps a thousand years time?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/12/western-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-has-already-begun-scientists-warn

Well, if I spread out my non-scientific prediction over two hundred years or more, no one will be around to tell me I was wrong.

Here's a scientific prediction that was proved wrong:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

Did the world come to an end in 2012? I missed it if it did.

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dkchristi
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 1:32 pm

I think it's approximately 850 pages of data and reporting.  The summary is that man and nature are rapidly changing climate and man can make some changes in behavior that will have a positive impact. ignoring the role of man will be detrimental.

In the entirety of the report, there are specific examples; however, it is the preponderance of the evidence from which they draw their conclusions and predictions that creates its impact.

I am glad that meteorologists predict hurricanes.  While they are imperfect, they still help me prepare.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Thu May 15, 2014 4:21 pm

One man's science is another man's fantasy:

"Britain’s Met Office, an international cheerleading headquarters for global warming hysteria, did concede last December that there would be no further warming at least through 2017, which would make 20 years with no global warming. That reflects grudging recognition of the newly developing trends. But that reflects as well growing divergence between the reality of real world temperatures and the projections of the climate models at the foundation of the global warming alarmism of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since those models have never been validated, they are not science at this point, but just made up fantasies. That is why, “In the 12 years to 2011, 11 out of 12 [global temperature]forecasts [of the Met Office] were too high — and… none were colder than [resulted],” as BBC climate correspondent Paul Hudson wrote in January."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/

The met's predictions for 2014-2018 seem to be pretty much the same as my unscientific predictions. Of course, having got it wrong in 11 out of 12 occasions, they decided to lower the predicted temperatures. This is the first prediction:



This is the updated prediction:


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dkchristi
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Fri May 16, 2014 8:39 am

So far as I know, only the Creator has full knowledge of the future, and maybe not even the Creator.  Maybe it's all in motion to unfold as it will with no organization.  However, when I see the organization in nature and the reach for harmony in most living things, I tend to believe that the universe is seeking some sort of harmonic equilibrium.

I find the predictions useful though certainly not guaranteed.  I would rather err on the side of caution than not give a damn and do nothing positive to make the world of the future and even today a better place.

I feel that those who call science a hoax and a means to create hysteria are not scientists at all but people with a vested interest in not accepting scientific evidence for their own financial gain.

That's my opinion.  I accept that there may be differing scientific opinions because no science is exact.  However, the source of those opinions and the source of the funding of those opinions needs to be examined carefully.  The language of true scientists is not one of "hoax" and "hysteria."  It is a language of evidence, analysis, hypothesis, recommendations, solutions, and correction.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Fri May 16, 2014 11:23 am

... and science says that if you are only right one in twelve times, then your hypothesis is flawed.

In the 800 page report, the IPCC predict that average global temperatures will possibly rise by two degrees above the pre-industrialisation averages. Here's a graph of average global temperatures since 1850:


Plotting this against a Y-axis between 2 and -2 degrees, the graph looks like this:


To say that average global temperatures will rise that high takes a tremendous leap of the imagination. My non-scientific prediction is that this century will end the same way that the nineteenth century ended, like this:

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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Fri May 16, 2014 12:46 pm

I have no dog in this fight, but 15 scientists and meteorologists (scroll to bottom of link for their names and affiliations) say the Obama admin's National Climate Assessment (global warming warning) is, well, bunkum.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/224538945/NCA-Rebuttal

My own guess is that the NCA is really just a cover to hand out more billions to favored friends, like the Solyndra frauds. Nothing ever happens when these frauds are discovered, so why not?
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Fri May 16, 2014 2:12 pm

I am not quoting President Obama's National Climate Assessment.  So far as I know the sources I quote are not handing out anything except the analysis of their international scientific investigations. 

The only beneficiaries of calling this bunko, a hoax, hysteria creating and other non-scientific names are those global corporate profiteers who wish no regulation on their means to excessive profits:  polluting earth, water and air; poisoning people; exploiting foreign workers and paying off foreign governments to have no regulations - attempting to return to the same heinous conditions against which the U.S. provided health, safety and workplace regulations at least.

My experience in Florida with the Everglades is sufficient to know that industry will destroy the planet without regulation.  Period.  We are a people that wants instant gratification without concern for tomorrow.

Climate change does not need to be singled out.  It is sufficient to know that the behaviors of people and industry are destructive and require correction so that we may pass down beauty and renewable resources to the following generations.  Regardless of where we are in this world, there is information available to teach us new behaviors that are more friendly to our planet and demand the same from global corporations.

In southwest Florida, the development companies are in charge.  They clear cut the land, cut through with canals, remove necessary vegetation to maintain shorelines, and change the wind and wave action along the former barrier islands.  Thus, we are more endangered from  hurricanes, lose our beaches for even less protection, erode our riverbanks and from their development golf courses that sell houses, the rivers and lakes are polluted with runoff and the pumping of water contributes to sheet flow flooding.  They destroyed the Everglades on the East coast and started to do the same here but have been stopped.

I'm not a tree hugger.  I do believe that development and conservation can live in harmony but it may cost the potential homeowner and commercial property owner a bit more.  It may cost customers a bit more to buy products.  Perhaps we can all do with a little less so that we harm our environment a little less.  How many square feet of dwelling do we really need?  How much ocean front do we need to block?

Why do all the seniors drive Escalades?  So if they hit someone they are the biggest?  Why do we add more lanes to roads in time to fill them up instead of laying tracks down the middle for a train?

Why do we have miles and miles of grass that sucks up water when there are beautiful ground covers that use so little?  Or xeriscape landscaping that fits with the environment.  How many cemetaries and golf courses do we need?  In Florida, a cemetary is pretty much a dead person swimming in a high water table anyway.

Why does our food need to be so cheap?  Can't we pay more, employ more workers on smaller farms with less mechanicals and not poison our earth and our food?  And the birds and the bees?

It doesn't take a scientific report to know that our air is allowing more UV rays.  It doesn't take a scientific report to know that you can't breath in Shanghai.  It doesn't take a scientific report to know that more cars pollute the air and fossil fuels are a disaster for the environment. 

Are these the only things changing the earth's potential for sustaining quality life?  No.  Natural phenomena also contribute to the change.  However, we don't need to be the agents that make it worse. 

Business does  not self-regulate.  It has one goal:  profit.  Profit at any cost.  Therefore, an advanced civilization that cares about its citizens (which is why we join together with a common government) regulates what is potentially harmful and not self-regulating.

Business does not want regulation.  I don't want to file for a permit to make modifications to my house or my property either.  However, forcing me to get a permit assures my neighbors that their homes will retain their value. 

What we did or did not do in the past is over.  We have knowledge today that needs to be used.  Every new home in Florida needs to capture the sun for energy.  We have sun every single day!  Not to capture it's energy is every day a waste.

I want to capture wind energy, too; but I have seen the wind fields and heard the hum - I think new ways to capture wind energy need investigation.  However, the Netherlands used Windmills long ago and so did the Chinese.

Love those New Zealanders who capture both sun and thermal energy for their homes and pools - at least they did in the 70's.  Wow, all that long time ago so far ahead of their time from necessity.

If we stop buying processed foods and purchase fresh from local farms and compost our waste, think of the landfills that will go begging. 

I'm done for today on this subject.  I seem to be rambling - but I started the thread so I guess I can ramble. 

Scientists do not need to use scare words or appeal to emotion. When they have facts, that's sufficient. It's those with something to gain that push for emotional responses.  When the emotions rule, the brain is not engaged.



http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm

www.noaa.gov

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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Fri May 16, 2014 2:43 pm

LC wrote:
My own guess is that the NCA is really just a cover to hand out more billions to favored friends, like the Solyndra frauds. Nothing ever happens when these frauds are discovered, so why not?

Solyndra's owners filed for bankruptcy to avoid paying taxes. The NCA don't pay taxes; they spend them.

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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Fri May 16, 2014 3:05 pm

Great post, DK! The problems of the world are not caused by global warming and they will not be solved  by seeking solutions to rising temperatures. The way to solve the problems of land management, pollution and environmental damage is through an understanding of the harm that is done without due regard to the future. Unfortunately, each generation always seems to be left will clearing up after its forefathers.

BTW, you do know that talking about the weather is a national pastime in the UK, don't you? We have a high boredom threshold for spouting about the weather; we never tire of the subject!

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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Fri May 16, 2014 10:19 pm

Good post, DK.  Your common sense says what needs to be said. 
As you indicated, one does not have to be a scientist to see change.  Interpreting change is where it gets sticky.  Why is it that cause and effect is brushed aside?  People resist change and that is natural.  We want things to remain the same.  When change occurs, our comfort zone is altered.  We can fight it or go with the flow. 
As Shelagh mentioned, talking about the weather is a national pastime.  I don't think that it is just in the UK where weather is the subject of conversation.  Where I live, it is a lively subject.  Concerns about planting and the harvest are major concerns as it affects one's livelihood.  Too much rain means that seeds will rot.  Not enough rain and the plants will not grow.  Sunshine may be an even more important element.  Agreement on what is more important continues to be disputed.  Too cold or too hot.  Too dry or too wet.  Balance is sought.  With Climate Change, that balance is being disrupted.  Season cycles have been altered.  We are in the month of May and people tell me we're having April weather.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Sat May 17, 2014 3:49 am

The seasons have always changed, Abe. We like to be in control of our environment, but we live on a planet that behaves according to its own laws of physics; it doesn't dance to our tune.  In A Midsummer Night’s Dream (1590), Titania says:

The seasons alter…
The spring, the summer
The childing autumn, angry winter change
Their wonted liveries; and the mazéd world,
By their increase, now knows not which is which.

The Earth's cyclic patterns don't always fall neatly into the seasons that help humans to cultivate the land. We are going through one such period and the older generation, who remember a more settled period, are not best pleased about the world not behaving the way it should! Husbandry only began 10,000 years ago. Before that, the climate must have been so unpredictable that humans could only exist as hunter-gatherers.

You might find this article interesting:

http://moreintelligentlife.co.uk/content/john-parker/dance-birds-wisdom

It concludes with a quote from someone from the older generation lamenting the changing of the seasons and blaming it on our past sins. Not a view I share, but one I understand; it is a human trait to think that if nature doesn't conform to our ideals of how the world works, then it must be the result of our doings. Just to exacerbate the situation, people then try to undo things that they didn't do!

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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Sat May 17, 2014 7:28 am

Shelagh, the web page you posted confirms that there is climate change.  Why is the subject of debate.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Sat May 17, 2014 8:52 am

Shelagh wrote:
Great post, DK! The problems of the world are not caused by global warming and they will not be solved  by seeking solutions to rising temperatures. The way to solve the problems of land management, pollution and environmental damage is through an understanding of the harm that is done without due regard to the future. Unfortunately, each generation always seems to be left will clearing up after its forefathers.

BTW, you do know that talking about the weather is a national pastime in the UK, don't you? We have a high boredom threshold for spouting about the weather; we never tire of the subject!

Weather forecast for the UK: "Low fog for Friday. The weekend brings the promise of High Fog. Sun bathers are heading North on Sunday. If the weather man is correct, there may be a break in the clouds. Those who have never seen the sun, will have a thirty minute window. It is reported the Queen will join a group of nudist for this gay  event. The Queen will be joined by the ladies of her court. As has always been the custom on such events, the Queen has requested Gentlemen wear green knee high socks, and top hats. The Queens guest list includes:
President Obama, The 49ers football team, and a Plummer by the name of, Harry Good Stick.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Sat May 17, 2014 8:58 am

My son lived in Seattle.  One time he told me on the phone they had not seen the sun for forty days and most of that time it had been raining.  I visited Seattle one August and had seven days of sunshine.  I was told I found a rare window.  However, Lake Washington was 60 degrees.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Sat May 17, 2014 8:59 am

I visited England, Scotland and Ireland for sixteen days one April.  We had one day of rain and a few foggy days but for the most part exquisite weather.  We were told it was highly unusual.  I believed it was because we forgot umbrellas and driving on the wrong side of the road was enough trouble.
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PostSubject: Re: Climate Change   Sat May 17, 2014 9:01 am

As I was reading Abe's comments about discussing the weather, I was reminded of my mother.  She was a farmer's daughter.  While her father was not born to farming, and did not adapt that well when the Depression forced it on him, his wife's family had been farmers for generations.  It was their natural way of living.  So, when I call my mom a farmer's daaughter, I speak more in that sense - a child of the agricultural era and way of life.

As she grew older, and especially during the years she lived in my home with me, she became very concerned about the weather.  It was just as Abe wrote:


Quote :
Concerns about planting and the harvest are major concerns as it affects one's livelihood.  Too much rain means that seeds will rot.  Not enough rain and the plants will not grow.  Sunshine may be an even more important element.  Agreement on what is more important continues to be disputed.  Too cold or too hot.  Too dry or too wet.  Balance is sought. 

Mother would stand at the windows, look out, and express her concerns as though her own current life depended on the weather.  In her mind, she was back on the farm, where changes in the weather could mean the loss or success of the crops that provided the means to live.

The agricultural world was far more balanced in its appreciation of the feminine - our Mother Earth was respected in a way that the industrial world ignored, or worse.  Mother Nature became a force to be conquered and subdued - polluted by chemicals and chemical wastes.

I cannot help but wonder if the concerns over climate change do not reflect a growing concern over the abuse of the planet and the growing need to find sustainable means to protect the land rather than lay waste to it as we seem to have been doing for the last couple of centuries with our man-made products
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